Elon Musk’s SpaceX is preparing for its debut on the stock market. Experts believe the event could be the catalyst needed to revive interest in companies that list their shares after years of public offerings, or IPOs, dwindling.
The number of IPOs – the process by which private companies initially sell their stock to the public to raise funds – has fallen dramatically over the past five years.
But earlier this month, SpaceX – which provides rocket launch services, Starlink satellite-based internet and, following a February merger with xAI, large-scale language models and social media – privately filed its IPO with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
SpaceX is seeking a valuation of around $2 trillion. That would make it the sixth-largest publicly traded company, trailing only Magnificent Seven members Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. If successful, the IPO will serve as an incentive for other private companies to follow suit.
After the record IPO of 2021, companies have delayed the timelines
In 2021, a record 1,035 companies went public. Despite supply disruptions during the pandemic fueling inflation, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low, ending the year with an effective funds rate of 0.08%. Those low rates have provided leverage for companies looking to take advantage of access to cheap capital. In turn, that created high prices for their public debuts.
As a result, a number of famous firms held IPOs that year, including Coinbase, Rivian, Robinhood and SoFi.
However, in response to decades of inflation, the Fed was forced to raise rates 11 times from 2022 to 2023 and have held them tight ever since. That was the fastest string of interest rate hikes since the 1980s. Along with the influx of capital from private sources, companies were discouraged from going public, and the IPO market almost dried up.
The number of IPOs fell by almost 83% in 2022, to 181. In 2023, only 154 companies went public.
But following that decline, and after the inclusion of SpaceX, prediction markets such as Kalshi have begun to show that the expectations of famous companies making a public sale in 2026 are increasing.
SpaceX’s success may cause a rush of IPOs
In the first quarter of 2026, 104 companies went public, setting this year’s highest number of IPOs since 2021.
If the Musk-led company succeeds in its goal of raising $50 billion to $75 billion in its public offering, it could be a green light for other private AI companies that have become household names. That includes Anthropic and ChatGPT maker OpenAI, both of which are rumored to be eyeing IPOs this year.
“There’s been a big pullback in 2022 and ’23, I think [a successful IPO for SpaceX] it can certainly open the door,” said Jennifer Horton, senior vice president at CapWealth.
Another factor is Musk’s popularity. While institutional investors are motivated by the financial well-being of companies, retail investors often turn to sentiment as an investment gauge. As the CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and Neuralink and the world’s richest person, Musk commands significant media attention, money and influence.
“On the retail side, I think [the IPO] it will provide a good insight into investor appetite,” Horton said. “Is it driven by how much they believe in Musk or the actual company’s finances?”
SpaceX has reportedly reserved up to 30% of its IPO shares for retail investors. Strong interest from that group could feed into other companies pursuing public listings this year.
Chances are beyond AI
The rebound in IPOs already extends beyond AI. Amazon-backed IX-energy – a developer of next-generation nuclear fuels and related nuclear fuels – debuted on the Nasdaq on April 24 and gained 27% in its first two days of trading.
According to Kalshi, sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s currently has a 92% chance of going public this year, while crypto exchange Kraken’s IPO chance stands at 62%. Hawkeye 360
“Anthropic and OpenAI are them [next] the ones everyone’s focused on,” Horton said. “These mega-cap tech IPOs are splashing. But I think it may go down… and move forward in other areas.”
As examples, he mentions the possible IPOs of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following years of government bailouts. The public listing of those two providers of the government-sponsored mortgage market could be a boon for financial stocks, which have performed the second-worst among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors this year.
But Horton also warns that the same obstacles that caused the decline after 2021 could re-emerge. “If interest rates remain high for a long time, that may put pressure on prices,” he said. “If there’s a little money on the table, that would do [companies] to delay.”
Although the Fed is expected to hold its rate steady in April, inflation rose from 2.4% in March 2025 to 3.3% in March 2026. With the war in Iran contributing to higher prices for everything from gasoline and plastics to airplanes and food, the central bank may have to revisit the rate hike if consumer spending starts to rise. If the Fed starts raising rates, that could deter other companies from following in SpaceX’s footsteps.
What investors should expect from IPOs
With many prominent IPOs expected in 2026, investors considering buying shares in startup companies should be aware of the risks.
“Historically, stock performance in the first year post-IPO has been a mixed bag… with a large minority delivering outsized returns in their first year of trading, while a minority delivering negative returns,” Thomas Shipp, head of equity research at LPL Financial, wrote in an April 23 post.
One reason, according to Shipp, is that everyday investors rarely have access to value propositions. “Investment banks tend to allocate most of the shares they have written to large institutional investors,” he wrote. Additionally, “taking a company public creates a liquidity event for existing shareholders. Insider ownership stakes can be sold… adding to the expected selling pressure after the IPO.”
These risks do not mean that investors should avoid IPOs altogether. Instead, they should talk to them carefully. Citing 30 years of IPO data, Shipp noted that there has been a wide variety of outcomes, from massive success stories to massive failures.
“We suggest that investors proceed with any IPO investment with caution and expect to experience significant volatility,” he wrote.
Unpredictability aside, Horton expects some retail investors to be cautious when it comes to the SpaceX IPO. “There are a lot of Elon Musk fans out there,” he said. “And I think a lot of people are going to throw caution to the wind because they want to see what’s going to happen.”
