In an economy where prices are rising everywhere you look, there is one bright, shining example that is bucking the trend: diamonds.
Diamond prices have fallen 50% since 2022 and are now at record lows.
Unfortunately, if you’re shopping for bling this spring, don’t expect to see eye-popping discounts at the jewelry counter. Big gains in the price of gold – including a jump of more than 60% in the past year alone – and other precious metals have boosted jewelry inflation by nearly 10% on an unadjusted basis from a year ago.
While gemologists say there are several reasons why the price you’ll pay for a diamond has dropped like a stone, there is one factor that is far and away the most responsible for the diamond’s decline: the increased production of lab-created diamonds.
Re-creating nature, at a fraction of the cost
Unlike imitations made from moissanite or cubic zirconia, lab-grown diamonds are completely different physically and chemically from their mined counterparts.
Major diamond producers such as De Beers have promoted mined diamonds as superior in beauty and sensibility to their lab-created counterparts, and both sides appeal to consumers’ ethical sensibilities: Lab-created diamonds are not bound by the humane and ethical concerns that have historically plagued the mining industry, although it also creates heat and deep pressure on the diamond that creates deep pressure on the diamond. fat.
But while humanitarian or environmental concerns may influence consumer behavior at the margins, industry analysts say the bigger picture is less complicated: Lab-grown rocks are plentiful, cheap.
Diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky said I New York Times last year that between January 2015 and January 2025, lab-grown diamond prices dropped by nearly 85% – and lab specimens can be purchased at a discount of nearly 90% compared to their mined counterparts.
Diamond and jewelry industry analyst Edahn Golan says one of the reasons was the poor performance of wholesalers: In the years after the epidemic, the industry built stocks in anticipation of increased demand from rising Chinese consumers. But when China’s housing market took off and made it the world’s second-largest economy, it kept much of that demand unfulfilled.
“Enter the outdated demand,” Golan told Money.
This food supply had a spillover effect, driving down the prices of mined diamonds. That’s bad news for manufacturers of mined and lab-created diamonds alike, consulting firm McKinsey & Co. determined in the 2024 report, concluding that the growing production and popularity of lab-produced stones, “is probably the biggest challenge facing diamond producers today.”
Bigger bling is a growing trend
Industry woes are an unusual bright spot for consumers – and there’s every indication that consumers are taking advantage.
The diamond market in the US, which is full of engagement rings, has reached a tipping point, according to the wedding website Real Weddings 2026 Survey: More than half of the wedding rings bought last year had lab-created stones.
The price difference is significant enough that buyers can get themselves a large rock and continue to outbid the value of the mined diamond. Consumers “prefer to spend the same or similar money, but with a much larger stone,” Alexander Lacik, former CEO of jewelry brand Pandora, told Fortune magazine in a 2024 interview.
American buyers have long favored 1-carat stones within a narrow band of color and clear boundaries. Now, that has changed, according to Golan. “The halo effect is that, after Covid… [that] we are seeing an increase in standard sizes,” he said.
The average weight of the engagement ring’s center stone is 2 carats for lab-grown versus 1.6 for mined, according to The Knot. This increases the total size of engagement ring stones, which increased from an average of 1.5 carats in 2021 to 1.7 carats in 2024.
But even with larger stones, the increased acceptance of lab-grown diamonds has actually driven down engagement ring prices, The Knot survey said. The 2025 median price of $5,200 is about 6% lower than 2023 and more than 15% lower than 2021.
Gold prices are always volatile
A fly in the ointment – or a diamond inlay, if you will – is the growth of stars in the price of gold.
Gold has been rising on the strength of investor concerns about stock volatility and stubborn inflation, combined with major banks around the world taking in cash to diversify away from the US dollar. Although the latest data shows that some major banks are now relaxing those purchases, experts don’t see a reversal anytime soon. Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at JP Morgan, predicts that the yellow metal may reach $6,300 this year.
If the gold bull cycle continues, however, people buying an engagement ring or a tennis bracelet could be in luck. And in the meantime, there are a few ways people can keep their costs down: Some jewelers report an increase in customers who reuse existing settings or bring in old gold jewelry to be melted down. Bargain shoppers are gravitating toward more lightweight designs that require less metal or choosing a lower karat weight to save money.
And the trend for lab-grown gems isn’t going away, which is good news for buyers when it comes to diamond prices. “They will continue to decline in lab growth,” Golan predicted.
More from Mali:
Gold Mined Stocks This Year. Can the Rally continue in 2026?
Gold Is Not the Only Metal to Rise in Price in 2026
5 Best Gold ETFs
