As the US, Canada and Mexico prepare to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup, millions of people are getting involved by betting on matches, goals and championships. If the latest predictions are correct, the betting figures will break records.
New predictions project that football fans will bet about 3 billion dollars in the US through online sports books, while billions more can be sold on market platforms.
H2 Gambling Capital, a market intelligence provider, predicts $2.9 billion will be wagered at US sportsbooks. That’s just a fraction of the $60 billion that could be bet worldwide, representing a 71% increase for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. (H2’s US rating includes “only legitimate sportsbooks, excluding dot-com sites,” said Ed Birkin, the company’s managing director.)
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming released a different forecast, with a base case of $2.82 billion in US online bets for the 2026 world cup. This estimate assumes that the US men’s national team (USMNT) reaches the Round of 32 or the Round of 16, where the Americans will bow out.
Sports betting on the 2026 World Cup could triple 2022 levels
This summer, the World Cup expands to a new format with 48 teams, up from the previous 32. The change means more games (104 vs. 64), more action and more betting. Combine the expansion and explosive growth of app-based sports betting and the growth of prediction markets, and it’s a pretty good bet that this is going to be one of the biggest sports gambling moments ever.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming predict worst and best cases from $2.32 billion and $4.33 billion in all US wagers, with more bets expected in the event of a deep USMNT run. However, this team has never advanced to the quarterfinals since 2002.
As a point of reference, Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimated $1.62 billion in Super Bowl bets in February and estimated $900 million to $1 billion in bets on the last World Cup.
About 70% of World Cup bets will be placed on two platforms: DraftKings (about $1.02 billion) and FanDuel ($945 million), the company said in its forecast.
Odds of winning the 2026 World Cup
So far, the most betting action on the winner of the tournament is behind Spain and France, and to a lesser extent, England, Brazil and Portugal, according to BetMGM.
Best scoring chances
Who will score the most goals and win the “Golden Boot” at the 2026 World Cup? Most bets have gone in for France’s Kylian Mbappe, England’s Harry Kane, Norway’s Erling Haaland, Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo and Spain’s Lamine Yamal.
Can you bet on the prediction markets for the World Cup?
Prediction market platforms have exploded onto the scene since the last World Cup, largely because the Trump administration gave them permission to operate nationwide. Users 18 and older can bet on sports on these sites by purchasing “yes” or “no” contracts on sports-related event markets, which determine the value of $1 per contract if the selection is correct.
Analysts say the volume of the prediction market cannot be compared head-to-head with sports betting statistics. One reason for this is that trading in the prediction market is calculated by accessing volume on both the buy and sell sides of the trade. Also, traders are constantly buying and selling contracts, which means that the reported volume numbers end up being bigger than the actual money at stake in the games.
Trends still show clear growth. DeFi Rate, a research and analytics website that covers prediction markets, estimated on Monday that US customers will trade $2.5 billion on World Cup prediction markets, and Kalshi is expected to see $1.47 billion of that volume.
“The main driver will be individual matchups – they make up about 80% of the proposed volume, and our data shows that most of the action will take place on match day,” said Cheryle Shepstone, director of content at DeFi Rate, in a press release.
Futures betting on prediction markets is also popular, providing users with the ability to cash out their trades as the competition progresses.
DeFi Rate revealed $253 million in Kalshi’s market cap for the World Cup winner. That would well beat the comparable market for the winner of the 2026 March Madness tournament, which has an estimated cap of $169 million.
